By: Trinidad Guardian

Tuesday September 07,

Don’t expect any magic. That’s the warning from Finance Minister Winston Dookeran on the 2010-2011 budget which he will present tomorrow — the first for the four-month-old People’s Partnership administration. 

Budget time is 1.30 pm. Delivery venue is the Parliament Chamber during tomorrow’s resumption of the parliamentary term. This follows the House of Representatives’ recent break. 

After Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar’s assurance on Sunday that the budget would not contain any new taxes (or property tax), Dookeran was asked yesterday about revenue raising mechanisms which the Government might employ to shore up the economy.

“All I can say is, don’t expect any magic,” Dookeran said. Dookeran reiterated the statement in declining to say if the 2011 package would remain in the $40 billion range—as it has been in recent years—or cross $50 billion. 

The Government already has prepared the public for another deficit budget, following a similar situation in 2010. Top level Government officials said yesterday, given T&T’s economic situation, it would be difficult for the budget to cross the $50 billion mark or even the $47 billion mark of the 2010 budget. 

They stressed the need to manage the projected deficit due to the deficit inherited from the last PNM budget. They also said while new mega projects—such as “grandiose” buildings—are out, large scale developmental projects would still be on.

Word on various issues—from restructuring of URP and Cepep programmes to redirected thrusts in energy, improved VAT and other collection procedures and increased developmental programmes—also are expected to be announced in the 2011 package. 

Government’s House of Representatives leader, Minister Roodal Moonilal, said yesterday: “While we can expect priority focus on crime, health, education, etc, the nation expects greater, more comprehensive articulation and programmes and a practical approach to resolving our critical problems.” 

Moonilal added: “With the budget being prepared by an economist for the first time, we expect it to be analytically strong, including in terms of regional and global economic trends as well as T&T’s development and also rooted in the compassion of inclusiveness of the PP’s philosophy.”

He added: “We expect it will provide for the vulnerable groups in society and seek to redress the imbalance in income distribution while also being cognisant of prudent expenditure policy. 

“It is expected to be a continuation of our manifesto commitment of prosperity for all since this has been adopted as government policy,” Moonilal added. Government Senator Professor Patrick Watson, another economist, yesterday reiterated the budget would have a deficit. He could not say if the deficit would be as large as the 2010 budget deficit of $5 billion. 

However, considering the current problem of a shrinking economy, Watson said the budget would focus on halting the slide and raising sustained growth. “This will be a year of holding things together and ensuring they do not fall apart and trying to turn things around... it’s not magic.

I’m sure we’ll see low, if any, growth for the 2010 period,” Watson added. As a result, Watson said one highlight of the budget would be a stimulus package for the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, for instance, to ensure that retrenchment and unemployment were kept to a minimum and to boost confidence in the various sectors and the country as a whole. 

He said the package would also likely include a solution for the problems suffered by CL Financial depositors. Watson said he would not be surprised also to see measures to ease the plight of Hindu Credit Union investors. Watson said the Government would not want to undertake measures to accumulate more debt since the existing debt was almost about 60 per cent of GDP.